About adaptation of ASBmm (A.Sorokin, SIC ICWC)

The adaptation of the model ASBmm to separate areas of the Aral Sea basin allowed analyzing and assessing an impact of destabilizing factors on water and environmental sustainability in the basin. Analysis of long-term forecasts in the test mode has produced preliminary assessments regarding:

  • impact of Roghun HEPS on flow regime in the Amudarya river, Vaksh river and on water supply of irrigated schemes and ecosystems in Prearalie,
  • impact of climate changes on river run-off and irrigated agriculture’s demand (Chirchik-Akhangaran-Keles basin),
  • inflow to Prearalie and Aral Sea.


The Aral Sea basin faces a quite topical and critical challenge of adaptation to climate change. This is proved by our simulations for Tashkent province (planning zone) that indicate to increase by 2035 in demand of irrigated agriculture exceeding available water almost in all scenarios. Our calculations for Toktogul and Roghun reservoirs demonstrated conclusively a need for long-term flow regulation in the basin, for which strict order and guarantee mechanism should be established. It is necessary to start revising water use limits in irrigation sector. At present, all countries in the region use outdated, non-unified standards that were developed 20-30 years ago for hydromodule zoning of that period. Thus, the main tool to survive under conditions of future periodical water shortage should be a system of governance, which supports water conservation.

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