Project describtion

The Project ASBmm is implemented jointly by SIC ICWC (Prof. V.A.Dukhovny) and UNESCO IHE - Institute for Water Education, the Netherlands (Mr. Joop de Schutter). The planned project completion year is 2012. Final output: popular version of ASBmm available on-line. Proposed dissemination of the software product: CD and Internet.


An integrated model ASBmm is a software product consisting of a number of information modules and computer programs:

Model for flow regulation by reservoir hydrosystems and water allocation (WAm)

SSoftware WAm ASBmm (Water Allocation Model) (WAM) is a specialized computer tool for modeling processes of flow regulation by large transboundary reservoir hydrosystems for the main rivers in the Aral Sea basin, for allocation surface water between the so-called water-management districts (planning zones) and aquatic ecosystems (wetlands in Prearalie, Aral); the model performs water and salt balance and hydropower computations for Syrdarya and Amudarya basins, based on water-management scenarios on monthly basis up to 2035; the model is developed using GAMS technology to enable solution of the optimization problem of water management, thus contributing to a right choice of water-management decisions.

WAm ASBmm includes:
  • • Hydrological and water-management schemes of Syrdarya and Amudarya river basins in form of graphs describing flow regulation and distribution network linked to reservoirs, HEPS, planning zones (through intake and outflow), and lakes,
  • Algorithms describing functioning of the water distribution system, solution of flow regulation by reservoir hydrosystems and of water allocation (simulation and optimization problems),
  • Target functions (control criteria) and constraints (initial and boundary conditions) as a first approximation allowing the efficient solution of flow regulation and distribution problem,
  • Input and output (computed) information formats.

Planning zone model (PZm)

Software PZm ASBmm is a professional software to compute water requirements in given water-management district (domestic sector, agriculture, industry); using climatic and water-management scenarios by 2035, the model computes water availability of given planning zones and agricultural production losses as a result of water scarcity, produces water-management balances of planning zones in connection with a river network (WAM model), including water and salt balances of irrigated areas, estimation of return water; considers local resources, including groundwater, and flow regulation by local reservoirs.

PZm ASBmm consists of water-management and economic parts and includes the following blocks for:
  • calculation of agricultural water requirements,
  • calculation of irrigated area’s water balance,
  • calculation of potential irrigated agriculture production,
  • calculation of drainage (return) flow,
  • calculation of planning zone’s water-management balance (water use per economic sector, local and transboundary sources, etc.),
  • • calculation of agricultural output losses (in case of water shortage in transboundary sources), economic evaluation of output losses due to associated effects, etc.

Socio-economic model (SEm)

Software SEm ASBmm is a software to build and assess water-management, agricultural and environmental development scenarios for the Aral Sea basin by 2035 in connection with the national socio-economic development scenarios for riparian countries; the model operates jointly with WAm, PZm.

SEm ASBmm accumulates and aggregates outputs from the following models:
  • WAm ASBmm – amount and cost of potential electric energy, which is planned and generated in HEPS following to reservoir hydrosystem operation scenarios, as well as generation losses (in case of idle releases),
  • PZ ASBmm – amount and cost of potential output planned in national Planning zones (by economic sector) following to development scenarios, as well as output losses (in case of water shortage).

SEm ASBmm assesses per country and basin:
  • Water-management balance,
  • Energy balance,
  • Nutrition balance,
  • Socio-economic situation against a range of indicators, including macroeconomic ones.

Water use is assessed in the following main directions:
  • development of household-domestic sector;
  • development of real economic sector (excluding agriculture);
  • development of agriculture, including irrigation;
  • development of energy sector.

The agricultural development is considered separately since the agriculture is a dominating water using sector (90% and more) in Central Asia. The economy of any country is considered as a specific block (excluding agriculture), which accounts indicators in the following areas:
  • mining industry and primary processing,
  • processing industry,
  • new technologies and science,
  • services.

The sector of "agricultural development" in SEm consists of a number of blocks:
  • irrigated agriculture;
  • dry farming;
  • livestock farming and food;
  • agricultural processing.

The most important is the block "irrigated agriculture", which estimates demands for water and quantity of farm produce, foodstuff availability and, at the same time, the main contribution to GNP

Dataware

The database of ASBmm consists of three blocks
  1. block to store retrospective information (on available water resources and their use, operation of hydraulic structures, socio-economic indicators of national development, per province – planning zone),
  2. block to store input data for the models, grouped by three scenarios (business as usual, national development, regional scenario – based on regional integration) parameters and blocks (socio-economic, climatic, hydrological, agricultural, water-management, environmental),
  3. block to store secondary information on scenarios and modeling results (to exchange data between the models, display and interpret modeling results through the User interface).

Control routine and User WEB-interface

The control routine and the interface couple the models through information flows and link the models with the DB, as well as provide access to:
  • forms to select scenarios (climate, development, management), water availability options, enter new structures (reservoirs, HEPS), set boundaries and regimes,
  • commands to run the models (computer routines), form and translate data, output indicators, reports, graphs, and schemes,
  • part of input information for its view and editing, and for ExpVersion – build user’s scenarios (options).

For easier use, a menu is provided for staged dialogue “user – computer”, for example:
  • choose for the future (2010-2035) an option of hydrological series of surface water resources (by water availability indicator),
  • choose a climatic scenario (max, min),
  • choose a development scenario (business as usual, national vision, regional scenario),
  • choose a multiple task from the proposed list and run it.

Each task stipulates its own set of tools (computer models), the special scheme of data input-output and the order of commands; the four main tasks are provided for:
  1. assessment of flow regulation by reservoir hydrosystem and of river water balance (with selection of basin) - uses WAm ASBmm,
  2. assessment of water requirements for Planning Zones (with selection of PZ) - uses PZm ASBmm ,
  3. assessment of water availability and agricultural output losses in PZ (with selection of PZ) - uses the models in PZm – WAm – PZm ASBmm,
  4. socio-economic assessment of regional development (by country) – uses SEm ASBmm.

The control routine, which maintains several users working in ASBmm concurrently, integrates the models and enables data routing and transforming and organizing data exchange, as well as controlling information flows through the web-interface; this routine synchronizes the information flows controlled by different users.

Software

Hardware requirements: computer with back-end configuration, processor P IV 3.3 GHz, memory 4 GB.
Software requirements:
  • operating system Windows 2003 Server,
  • WEB-server Apache 2.2 or IIS-server,
  • Interface development and operating environment – PHP 5 (with additional libraries curl, gd, pear, imagick, xmlrpc,
  • DBMS MYSQL 4,
  • Program for high-speed data exchange – FTP server (for instance, proftpd),
  • GAMS system

The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) is designed to make the construction and solution of large and complex mathematical programming models for programmers and more comprehensible to users of models from other disciplines, e.g., specialists in water managements, hydrologists, economists. GAMS is specifically designed for modeling linear and nonlinear optimization problems. The using GAMS is oriented to tasks of management and the economic analysis. This system is created in USA under support of World Bank and was calibrated for the Nile, Indus, Yelow rivers’ basins and others.
 
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